Here's a nice little "feel good story".....

Commodities continue their "chugging higher".......two steps up......one step back. SOHU pushed up through resistance yesterday, and now is backtesting that move up as it carves its way up in a long term "bowl". CHKP is also appears to be forming the same long term formation.

But if you want to take a look at a two clips......outside of investments........here's a couple that are worth your while. They will DEFINITELY give you that "feel good" feeling.

The first is from a ten year old from the series "Britain's Got Talent." Apparently they do! The ten year old, "Hollie".........sounds just like Julie Andrews as she sings a song from "My Fair Lady".........and BLOWS the crowd and judges (and myself) away.

This second video is also from the "Britain's Got Talent" show as well. It is of Paul Potts......a mobile phone salesman by day...........a "closet" opera singer by night (singing Nessun Dorma). His performance almost moved the female judge to tears. And just a note....."Hollie".....will be signing the same song that Paul sings in this video, when she sings in the next round. I can't WAIT to see her next performance.

It really is a GREAT thing to see modest.......hard working people succeed. These two clips......are two great examples of that.

Manhattan Real Estate - "The Thrill Is Gone"...

Here's a recent article (April 9th) about residential real estate in Manhattan. The downturn is really starting to take its toll in New York. This was almost the last place to get hit (with the exception of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming). But the downturn is really starting to get tracktion. Combined with the COMMERCIAL real estate downturn.......and things will likely get kind of ugly in New York City.

Here's a single paragraph from the article:

"The stress is most severe at the high end of the market. There are 350 apartments and town houses for sale in Manhattan with asking prices of more than $10 million, and inventory has been growing. It would take about six years at the current sales rate to absorb all those listings."

That last sentance is a killer. Now......granted......sales WILL pick up EVENTUALLY. But this is likely going to be a "long slog" because much of the financial district in New York is NOT coming back.

Here's another good article, this one about commercial real esate. The author of the article (Jeff Bernstein) is right:

"Stalling tactics! Everywhere I look I see them. The Fed accepting shakier and shakier assets as loan collateral, mortgage forbearance programs and, increasingly, bank loan extensions. In fact, the whole TARP/TALF/PPIP monstrosity embodies it.

The supposition behind all of this activity is that asset values are, somehow, temporarily depressed, true fundamentals are much better than what markets are giving them credit for and ......if we just give everyone a little time, things will work themselves out. Unfortunately, we continue to see evidence that the markets have things more right than wrong."

We'll see how this bear market rally ends up. I think there are two likely scenarios: (1) It started it's roll over Monday....and will continue on to set lower lows this leg down, or (2) it pushes down to the 700 - 760 area......and everybody jumps on the "bull train" because it has "successfully tested" its prior lows (in which case the market wouldn't start to roll over until this summer some time). Either way, it is going to roll over. Right now, we are sitting at a PE of 29 times GAAP earnings for the twelve months ending 12/31/2009.

I just looked at the Standard And Poor's 500 earnings estimates (GAAP) again today, they have dropped to $28.50 for all of 2009, and $35 for all of 2010. Two weeks ago, they were $35 for 2009, and $41.50 for 2010 as reported on this blog. So they have dropped 20% over the past 2 weeks for 2009, and dropped 15% for 2010.

The direction of sentiment AND cash flow push the market.......but eventually earnings will weigh on sentiment.

Cramer Caught Lieing........AGAIN.

Here's a video clip from Don Harrold on Youtube. I don't think I had seen this one before. This was from August of 2008 when Cramer "recreated history" from 2006. In August of 2008 he was saying on this clip, that he had been BEARISH on the housing market in 2005 and 2006 until August of 2008.

Much like the Daily Show, apparently Cramer FORGOT that he actually was BULLISH in October of 2006 on the housing market. And what he REALLY forgot.....was that he was bullish ON TV!!!! Uh oh........... Damn.......there goes that "accountability thing" again. Cramer caught in ANOTHER LIE. It is a great video......and makes Cramer look like the bozo that he is. Of course.....in this case.....a bozo that lies.

CNBC.......the Cheerleading National Broadcasting Company. Information you can count on? Hmmmmmmmm

What Does Aston Kutcher Have To Do With Wall Street?

I thought you would never ask:) Last week......something VERY IMPORTANT in journalism happened......and not many people noticed. For those of you that watch "Larry King Live"......you may know that Ashton Kutcher was in a friendly "competition" with CNN and Larry King to see who would be the first to get to 1,000,000 viewers on their "Twitter" account: Ashton Kutcher.....or CNBC. Kutcher won. And Kutcher is no dummy.......I think he understands the importance of his "victory" over Larry King.

Here is a video clip of Larry King interviewing Kutcher this past weekend. If you go to 4:00 into the clip, you will come to the most important statement in that clip where Kutcher says: "I thought it to be quite significant that we now live in an age for media, that a single voice can have as much power and relevance on the web as an entire media network" (like CNN).

So...........what does Kutcher and Twitter have to do with the stock market anyway? Journalism is changing.........QUICKLY.......right before our eyes. And that applies to financial journalism as well...........even if you have to stretch the meaning of journalism to include CNBC........which really ISN'T journalism (it's allowing yourself to be used by Wall Street and cheerleading).

What CNBC doesn't apparently realize..........is what many of the Republicans also didn't realize during the last presidential election: PEOPLE ARE GOING TO HOLD YOU ACCOUNTABLE FOR WHAT YOU SAY.......ESPECIALLY ON TV. Cramer........STILL doesn't get it. He was made an absolute ass out of by Jon Stewart......but Stewart used CRAMER's OWN WORDS and video clips to do it. Cramer and CNBC are trying to "restate history" when in fact history is VERY CLEAR........and is viewed by many on Youtube and elsewhere: Cramer was wrong MANY.....MANY....times, and he is NO "expert." And CNBC is NOT a network to get "actionable financial news" from. PERIOD.

And the effect on media is going to be ASTOUNDING as we move forward in time in coming months and years. As we go forward.........."media"......won't be about the "strength" or "power" of major networks. Media will become more "efficient"......and it will be about the following:

1) If you're "entertainment".........then you'll have to be funny and entertaining.

2) If you're "educational"........then you'll have to provide a good educational experience.

3) If you're "financial" in nature.........THEN YOU'LL HAVE TO EITHER BE CORRECT OR HAVE THE PEOPLE ON AIR WHO ARE CORRECT. And THAT......is where CNBC is getting beat up. Because they HAVEN'T been right............and in fact.......they have belittled the analysts who were bearish early on (and the bearish analysts were right).........and the Cramer's and Kudlow's and Neil's of the world WERE WRONG.

I imagine financial media will become much more "dispersed" (smaller).........and like Ashton Kutcher......word will spread by "word of mouth" (or word of email:) in many cases, and by Internet advertising. Those financial sites that provide good......actionable content or add value from an educational experience........will prosper. Those.....like CNBC, will not. Bandwidths and speed over the internet will allow more and more SMALL OPERATIONS to start up. You'll have to be GOOD.......ACCURATE........TRUSTWORTHY...........and not "beholden" to Wall Street.

The "brave new world" will also not be as kind to the likes of Goldman Sachs as well. You can already see that Goldman is trying to play the part of "playground bully" and trying to quiet the likes of GoldmanSachs666.com. What they (Goldman) doesn't know......is that there are sites lining up to either help sites like GoldmanSachs666 or take their place. Information WILL get out. People like Henry Blodgett can be silenced with a little payola........but there are actually people with ethics in some of the Wall Street firms.........just not many of them........and they don't stay around.

The last thing in the world that Goldman or any other hedge fund or investment bank wants.....is an efficient market where truth gets out. Abby Joseph is a big help to the trading floor at Goldman. A big player like Goldman or any other large hedge fund, can be helped by a little "misdirection" (as they call it in football). In the fall of 2007 she was bullish as all get out.......as Goldman was shorting the banks and housing industry. She is doing the same thing now with her call of S&P 900.

Some Items Of Note....

1) Investor sentiment is getting a little on the "too bullish side". Note that the Investors Sentiment Survey jumped up to 1.27 to 1.0 bull-to-bear ratio last week (for the survey done Friday, April 10th and given out on Wednesday, April 15th). The new survey done this PAST Friday (two days ago) won't be out till this coming Wednesday......and I suspect that the ratio will jump slightly again and is likely up around 1.5 to 1.0. We may have put in a short term top. I will "blaken" the current 1.27 reading, but I expect the reading coming out in two days to be higher than that.....perhaps as high as 1.5ish and that will be the top. Remember, the reading coming out Wednesday will be from this past Fridays survey.

2) China: Shanghai Index has a short OR intermediate term BEARISH WEDGE that it has formed. It may have put in a short OR intermediate term top. Also, negative divergence has crept into the daily charts as well.

3) US Dollar: Still within its intermediate term bearish wedge. If the US government continues to "print" more money over the short/intermediate term, the dollar will break DOWN from its bearish wedge. Watch silver. Silver may.......and I repeat MAY, be forming a BULLISH wedge. You need to be careful on this one in the short term. The IMF has said that it is selling some of its gold reserve, which.......if it continues in the short/intermediate term......would likely promote more short term weakness in the precious metals INCLUDING silver. But watch the dollar AND silver/gold over the coming few weeks for a possible reversal.

4) Finally, anyone who was wondering WHY Dylan Ratigan left CNBC, need only to listen to the audio clip that is enclosed within THIS article. The audio clip is an interview of Dylan in February of this year, only a few weeks BEFORE he left CNBC. In the clip, Ratigan lays out the deceit of many of Wall Streets investment bankers in no uncertain terms, a story that Ratigan wanted to emphasize MORE than his producer at CNBC on Fast Money. Ratigan will land SOMEWHERE and tell the story that CNBC didn't WANT to tell.....and still doesn't want to tell.

Just don't forget that CNBC is owned by GE, and GE is certainly NOT immune from the shenanigans of Wall Street. For instance, they overstated earnings during the tech bubble and when they sold their insurance business they had to take a huge "non-recuring" loss because they had under-reserved their loss allowances. They also "spun off" Genworth Financial back in late 2003 at $20 a share........and it is now $2 a share. Cheerleading pays off.

It's crystal clear to anyone with eyes, that CNBC was WAY......WAY.....behind the ball during the financial crisis and was.......as they were during the tech bubble......cheerleading all the way (with notable exceptions being David Faber and Rick Santelli). They are apparently trying to "recreate history". I've seen a couple of clips on other sites where Cramer is STILL bitching about "being made to look like a fool by Jon Stewart". I only have to say this: Cramer....if you looked like a fool on the Daily show.....it's because of the all the clips of you making YOURSELF look like a fool.

Between Cramer, Kudlow, and Neil..........they likely have three of the worst financial "journalists" in the business (and I use the word journalists very loosely). I honestly don't know which one of them is worse.

Never Judge A Book By It's Cover....

If you haven't seen this video clip yet from "Britain's Got Talent", then this is a must. It shows that you must NEVER judge a book by its cover.

Whether it is a CEO, a date, or an adversary........NEVER judge a book by its cover.

New ECRI Video Clip....

Here's a new ECRI video clip. Again, for those of you that don't know, ECRI is an economic forecasting group. While their work is utilized by many groups involved in the stock market, their expertise is NOT forecasting the stock market.......but forecasting economic turns on Main Street.

I say that because of the fact that sometimes the stock market doesn't "bottom out" before the economy bottoms out. The most recent occurance of this is the last recession, where the stock market didn't bottom out until AFTER the economy bottomed out.

I know all the "talking heads" always say the "market is forward looking".....blah....blah....blah. But the fact is.......the market just moves from intermediate term bottom.........to intermediate term top..........back to intermediate term bottom.....etc. Why? Because not eveyone is a "long term investor". Hedge funds, including some of the largest hedge funds which are INSIDE of investment banks, are short term.....to intermediate term......traders. They monitor sentiment and are very aware of shifts in investor sentiment.

The two important variables RIGHT NOW.......are the US Dollar, and investor sentiment. Will be interesting to see where the investor sentiment is this Wednesday.

As far as the Dollar is concerned, it is still working its way up in a bearish wedge, but watch support. At some point over the coming weeks.....I expect the dollar to break down from its wedge. That should be bullish for commodities. Remember, the US is going to be raising a LOT of money over the coming months. The appetite for our debt will be key. If appetite for our debt weakens a little bit......the dollar is likely to come under pressure.

Goldman Earnings Article....

Here's a good article on Goldman Sach's quarterly "earnings" that was announced yesterday. There are a couple things to note in the article:

1) First, Goldman is changing their fiscal year end to coincide with the calendar year end (this is not a big deal in and of itself......and wouldn't be a big deal AT ALL if Goldman would also have detailed out what their "mysterious" December P&L looked like). In order to do this, they reported on the quarter from 01/01/09 - 03/31/09. Note that the "orphan month" of December 2008 was NOT included in their quarterly earnings. THAT...is how Goldman reported a "profit". It is yet one more example of how CEO's try to "bury" any bad news. In this case.....they dumped all the "bad stuff" into the orphan month that they didn't report on (but could also have reported on if they had chose to).

2) The analyst in the article points out what is often overlooked by many: The balance sheet and the cash flow statements are king.........NOT the income statement. In this case.....the analyst "backed into" some important metrics on the balance sheet (because Goldman did NOT include a complete balance sheet in their earnings announcement).

The bottom line on the banks is this: Many of them are STILL in the dog house. While I am NOT looking for Armageddon......I do expect that many of the banks are trying their very best to "forestall" the reporting of losses that are sitting on their balance sheet right now.........and the banks "loss reserves" (for loans that have already gone bad.......or will soon be going bad) are under-reserved. As housing continues to drop (the next wave of foreclosures will be hitting this year from Alt A and prime mortgages), commercial real estate continues to drop, and consumer credit losses grow........banks will be forced to take some of those losses.

Do you remember when all the "talking heads" back in March of 2008 were saying "the bottom has been hit and banks will report GAINS from their toxic assets"? Well.......here we are......1 year later......and the proverbial "gains" are nowhere to be seen.

The bottom of the housing market is still at least a year away if you read what the analysts that have been RIGHT on the housing market say (as opposed to the bozo's like Kudlow who has been WRONG ALL THE WAY DOWN).

Commodities Keep Trucking.....

Commodity plays continue to work. CHK and TIE among them. Chesapeak is moving up past strong resistance at $20ish. I REALLY like this for a longer term play, both technically AND fundamentally. I believe a movement will CONTINUE into natural gas because it is a cleaner fuel than oil. As well, I believe the US Dollar will start to weaken and bread down from its BEARISH WEDGE. A drop in the dollar should be bullish for commodities.

SOHU is moving up through its intermediate term resistance at $50ish.....and continues to work on the right side of the "bowl." This continues to look great as well.

CPSL is an interesting play.....although this one is a microcap speculative play (less than $100 million in market cap). It recently broke up through a bullish wedge and continues to move higher. It is a "cold rolled steel" company with plenty of cash in a growing market.

I continue to keep my eyes on the US Dollar. I believe, both from a technical standpoint AND a fundamental standpoint, that it is only a matter of time until the US dollar pulls back and tests its LONG TERM support. The only unanswered question in my mind, is HOW FAR the dollar pulls back, and IF support holds. Right now support is at the $84ish range which is support in the bearish wedge the dollar has formed over the past 6 months or so.

Investor sentiment is still moving up.....and as I stated a week or two ago, could move up to the 1.25 - 1.5ish range before this rally runs into trouble

Goldman Sachs Link.....

Here's a GREAT website that I came across this weekend. It is a website that reports on the nefarious ways of my "buddies" over at Goldman Sachs. Apprently Goldman didn't like the "publicity" it was getting from this website (I guess the truth hurts), and Goldman is sueing to shut it down. The website is Goldmansachs666.com. Some GREAT articles as to how the tentacles of Goldman reach up and down Wall Street, and into the wallet of Main Street.

The least I can do is point out the site so that you might visit it. In fact......I'll post the site on my blog......and perhaps you can do the same on yours. I'm sure Goldman will love the attention.

We have one of the most INEFFICIENT markets in the world, although our friends at the investment banks would have you think otherwise. The way to make them MORE efficient is to keep shining the light on them.

New Jon Stewart Video Clip....

If you want a good chuckle from a non-investment video clip, here is a 6 minute Jon Stewart clip on "Baracknophobia". Anything that makes fun of Sein Hannity, Michelle Bachmann, or Dick Morris is good in my book.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	M - Th 11p / 10c
Baracknophobia - Obey
comedycentral.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Economic Crisis Political Humor

Roubini Is Right: Cramer IS A Bafoon....

Apparently word is getting out: Jim Cramer is a bafoon. I know........I know........this isn't exactly "news" to anyone that has ever listened to, or watched........Cramer. But it is good to know that people are airing their opinions and holding him accountable.

Nouriel Rabini is just another in a growing list that are calling Cramer and CNBC out. Maybe some day, CNBC will hold Cramer accountable. Nawwwwwwwwww.........what am I thinking. CNBC is all about ratings. They don't care what they say......as long as it produces ratings.

Put This Woman Away......

I thought that Cynthia McKinney was a nut job. She was a Democrat that served in the US House of Representatives from Atlanta. She was.....and is still......embarrassing. If I were a Democrat....I would have worked AGAINST her when she was running for office. Fortunately....she shot herself in the foot one too many times, and was eventually defeated.

But I think the Republicans have come up with their own wack job.....US Representative Michelle Bachmann of Minnesota. Boy....she is "out there". And "out there" is light years to the right of ANYONE. I thought Kudlow was conservative. Sheessssssshhhhhhh. She makes him look like Ted Kennedy.

The launching point of Bachmann's remarks is apparently the bipartisan Edward M. Kennedy Serve America Act. That act would expand national community service programs from 75,000 positions to 250,000.

This is a quote from Ms. Bachmann as she describes the "Serve America Act":

"It's under the guise of -- quote -- volunteerism. But it's not volunteers at all. It's paying people to do work on behalf of government. I believe that there is a very strong chance that we will see that young people will be put into mandatory service. And the real concerns is that there are provisions for what I would call re-education camps for young people, where young people have to go and get trained in a philosophy that the government puts forward and then they have to go to work in some of these politically correct forums."

So I guess she is claiming that the volunteerism is a "guise" in order to brainwash the youth of this country into believing and supporting a "liberal" philosophy and agenda. Boy......those damn "commy" Democrats. How DARE they do THAT to our country!! How DARE we volunteer and help people who need assistance. That is TERRIBLE:) We should CONTINUE to lower the tax rate on only the wealthiest tax payers in the country. What is this country coming to?

I would like to think that I can vote Republican again at some point in my life. But....Republicans like Michelle Bachmann certainly do NOT help their cause.

Here is the video.....you may have to see it to believe it:

Merideth Whitney Interview....

Here is a Merideth Whitney interview clip from yesterday (courtesy of "Kaboom") that discusses the banks. As most of you know, she has been "spot on" regarding the banks, and she sees more pain to come.

That really shouldn't be a surprise given that housing has NOT hit its bottom. Keep in mind that housing won't hit its bottom until 6 - 9 months AFTER forclosures hit their bottom. And foreclosures haven't bottomed yet. In fact, keep in mind that Fannie and Freddie just did away with their "foreclosure foregiveness perioed" as of March 31st......so foreclosures will be picking up. Also keep in mind that many 2008 FHA loans were done WITHOUT A DOWN PAYMENT....and many of those will be headed for the foreclosure bin.

S&P 2009 and 2010 Earnings Estimates...

Down again. The estimates for all of 2009 are now $35 for the S&P 500. For 2010, they are now $41.50. Keep in mind that these estimates are GAAP........"as is reported earnings." They include ALL income (both operating and nonoperating) and ALL losses (again....operating and NON-operating losses). The estimates continue to drop. These estimates were as of 03/31/09 by Standard and Poors.

I believe that in time, the market is heading to "home".......and "home" is a PE multiple of LESS than 10 times ACTUAL GAAP EARNINGS on a 12 month trailing basis. It may not get to home until next year.....but I believe it will get there. That portends an S&P of less than 400.

Here is a link to "Bespoke" which is an investment blog. Click on the word "link" in the first paragraph.....and it will take you to the actual excel worksheet at Standard and Poor's.

Study On Toxic Assets By Two Professors....

A study just done by two professors from Harvard and Princeton come up with the following conclusion of the toxic assets issue. The following is the closing paragraph from that study:

"This paper has investigated the pricing of investment grade credit risk during the financial crisis. Many analysts appear to be looking at large recent price changes and concluding that we must be witnessing distressed pricing and widespread market failure. This conclusion is based on intuition that fails to appreciate the extreme nonlinearity in the risks of credit securities, especially those manufactured by securitization (ie CDO traunches). Our analysis suggests that the dramatic recent widening of credit spreads is highly consistent with the decline in the equity market, the increase in its volatility, and an improved investor appreciation of the risks embedded in these securities. From this perspective, policies that attempt to prevent a widespread mark-down in the value of credit sensitive assets are likely to only delay - and perhaps only worsen - the day of reckoning."

ECRI Interview.....

Here's a clip from ECRI's website. I follow them closely.....because they have been RIGHT over the decades. This is an important clip to note.....as they have "called" a "cycle low" in the economy. What does that mean? It means that their longer term indicators in the ECONOMY that go out about 6 months have bottomed. And their weekly indicators that go out a few months look to have troughed as well. It doesn't mean that the stock market can't go down. If you recall......the stock market actually didn't bottom until about 9 months AFTER the last recession ended.

A Few Things To Watch.......

1) Banks: Watch the banking index (BKX) and XLF short term to see if they break up.....or if they break down. They are getting to the end of their triangle.

2) US Dollar: Keep an eye on this one. Eventually, I expect it to break DOWN from its longer term bearish wedge. This may not be bad for the US market in the short term. But as I have said before.........if it gets down towards LONG TERM SUPPORT in the low $7x's.......Mr. Market may not like that so much. And then if it were to eventually break DOWN....that would NOT be good. If the dollar does break down and heads toward long term support, this would be bullish for commodities.

At some point.....perhaps in another 3 - 4 weeks.......the rally will "wear thin." Right now, the bull-to-bear ratio is at .82.....so it could move up to the 1.25 - 1.5ish area before the market heads south.

Housing foreclosures and pricing will continue to drop. I saw Dennis Gartman on Bloomberg a week or two ago, and he said that with only 400,000 houses being made in a year now, that we will soon be in a position to have a significant uptick in housing.

I think that ignores several important points:

1) We had overbuilt to such a large extent in 2002 - 2006. We brought millions of people INTO the housing market, that never should have qualified. NEVER. Now......those houses are going back onto the market. Some of those houses have been gobbled up by investors. Unfortunately.......they have been gobbled up too early. Some of those early investors are now walking away from homes. It is no different than when a stock plummets. Some of the early "knife catchers" ALWAYS get their arms cut off before the bottom.

2) A large amount of people borrowed too much against their homes near the peak in the market. Now.....they are under water on their mortgage. What happens if they now want to sell their home either (1) because they are retiring, (2) because they are moving, or (3) they need to sell a second home because they need the money. What are THOSE "prime" mortgage holders/sellers going to do? Are they going to come up with $50,000 to over a million dollars that they are under water? Or....are they going to mail in the keys?

3) There is STILL a large amount of "shadow inventory" that has NOT been listed on the MLS by banks. These banks have 600,000 - 700,000 homes on their balance sheets that have not yet been listed for sale. THAT.....is going to put pressure on home prices.

4) And there is also the overhead "drage" of homeowners who WANT to sell.......but don't HAVE to sell.......but they don't want to sell in THIS HOUSING MARKET. That....will be significant "overhead resistance" for the foreseeable future.

Ratigan Gone At CNBC....

Since I rarely watch CNBC any more (I watch Bloomberg)......I guess it's logical that I was the last to learn that Dylan Ratigan has not renewed his contract with CNBC. This is not very surprising......since CNBC likes to play to Wall Street, instead of reporting on it.

Dylan, along with Rick Santelli and David Faber, were the only three that worked at CNBC that I had respect for. The rest of them........are pretty much a group of worthless cheerleaders. I saw in an article the other day that Becky Quick married a producer at CNBC a short time ago. Apparently she started dating the producer......who, by the way, was married and had two kids at the time. He left his wife for Becky. Apparently CNBC wants people to work for them that are either dumb as a stump like Kudlow......or have no ethics like Becky Quick. With Dylan Ratigan's departure......they have one less ethical person on their set. In Kudlow.....I guess CNBC gets the best of all worlds: (1) An incompetent idiot on economics, (2) a cheerleader for Wall Street, and (3) someone to the right of Atillah The Hun.

I would expect Santelli to be the next out the door. I read in another article this morning where his contract expires this year. I enjoyed it when Santelli "outed" Cramer for being too bullish on live TV (in the fall of 2007 and still too bullish in the spring of 2008). I bet the suits at CNBC loved that one (not). Santelli will end up on Bloomberg (which I now watch) or Fox after his contract ends.

It will be interesting to see where Radigan will land. When Eric Bolling left CNBC.....he had a clause where he couldn't "jump" directly to a competing channel for a period of several months. I would assume that Ratigan likely has a similar clause.

I found Ratigan to be one of the very few talking heads to REALY attack Wall Street for its blunders and unethical behavior. CNBC took a big "hit" with the Cramer fiasco interview on Jon Stewart's show several weeks ago......and it will likely suffer more now that Ratigan is gone. CNBC has been "outed" for what it really is: Just a running promotional video for Wall Street. I'm waiting for the day that I hear of Abby Joseph Cohen is going to work for them. For all I know, she's already on their payroll!!

SOHU, CHK, TIE.....

They continue to work their way up. SOHU.....continues to carve out the right side of a BIG BOWL. As it meanders its way back up to $50 again.....this will be the real test. It is likely ready to break up through $50 this time. Remember......the Asian markets are MUCH stronger than the US equity market. And they should be. Their banks are much better capitalized......and their citizens are LOADED in savings which can spur economic growth.



CHK....I noted a few days ago it was due for a pullback from $20ish resistance. It did pull back to $16.50ish. I really thought it would pull back further......but $16.50 was the first support area. We'll see if the gap formed today will hold. If it does......then it's back up to $20 resistance. Will this be the time it pushes through $20? It just may be. By the time it is knocking on the door of $20, the US dollar may be falling through its bearish wedge, which would help the commodities move up (like CHK and TIE). Fundamentally AND technically, I continue to like CHK in the intermediate AND long term. Same for TIE below. In fact, I like most "fungible" commodities because of growth in Asia and Latin America (oil, grains, most metals).


TIE....continues to work its way up. Again....if the dollar will fall some, this will help it even more.


Bull/Bear ratio is at .82 so again......this rally (which HAS turned out to be an intermediate term rally).....has additional fuel to go before it runs out.


Have we seen "thee bottom". I doubt it. Unless a trailing 12 month PE of 50 is normal at the end of a severe recession. Which it isn't (at least it HASN'T been over the last 100 years).

Standard And Poor's Earnings Estimates...

S&P's own earnings estimates for 2009 on a GAAP basis are now down to $35 for the S&P 500. For 2010, the forecast is $42.

These have continued to come down over the prior weeks. A month ago, the estimate was $40 for 2009.